This is part of What Interest Me This Week.

While everybody is obsessed with inflation and how to play around it, I've been paying attention to the strengthening of USD against MYR.

I'm not even sure it's not a waste of time. The reason is I have a backlog of MYR drypowder waiting to deploy (usually into USD) but it keeps depreciating against USD the past half a year. There is no indication it's going to change in the next half a year.

In fact there's a good chance Fed is going to raise interest rate simply to curb inflation, and that's going to drive MYR even further down. The irony is when USD drops in purchasing power MYR is forced to follow suit. Emerging market currencies are shitcoins that cannot win.

On second thought though, I forgot to widen my scope and consider deploying into crypto directly, thinking we are still firmly in the bull market. That's now in question.

Crypto bear markets were traditionally defined by soul crushes, suicidal fear uncertainty and doubt. An emerging narrative says that there is no longer one single bull/bear cycle for the entire crypto market. And that bear runs are no longer characterized by vertical falls.

Data suggest that DeFi as a sub-segment has been on a bear run for a year now, but other sub-segments are having their own rally independently. Is possible I've been living in a bear market and not know it?

If it's true then it's the kind of time that I play to my strength the best. Thing is my conviction here isn't so high. What if this is wrong and the downsides are much greater? On the other hand if this narrative is right, an 80% drawdown might not come (which I've been counting on) and I wouldn't have bought anything for the next cycle at all.

This is the kinda discomfort we have to deal with playing this game. You thought you knew something, and then the rule changes.