The crypto bull market is approaching. There's no real provable reason why it should, but here it is.

My stash of MYR dry powder has been accumulating for the past six months. It's not a position I rather be in, had it not for the fact that USD has gotten so expensive in this period. Sitting on my hands is getting increasingly difficult.

The four-year bull/bear cycle has gotten surprisingly consistent, almost like clockwork. I'm ashamed to not have spotted that much earlier.

Bull runs happened to coincide with Bitcoin halving. I don't really think much of halvings in terms of fundamental impact, but animal spirits of the market may have a different idea. Don't argue with animal spirits.

All these time I've been trying to out-reason the crypto market by flank-attacking from macroeconomic angles. The logic is simple: if there's a lot of USDs floating around, much of it would be absorbed by crypto, pumping the market up.

I'm starting to rethink the relationship between macroeconomics and crypto. There may hardly any at all. I might have to re-evaluate my approaches altogether.

Macroeconomy sure is entertaining. There are indexes, geopolitics, policymaking, demographics, social movements, etc. Perhaps they do make discernible impact if I'm managing a SoftBank-sized fund, but I'm kidding myself if I think they provide more signals than noise to the kinds of bets I make.

Having an opinion on the impending population crash hardly inform my trades of small and medium cap tokens. 100x returns don't usually result from general knowledge.

Meantime, it's been said that dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is harder than it looks. I don't know where that come from, maybe doing so demands discipline for some folks.

DCA is dead easy for me, it's like a man-operated cron job. That's what I've been doing throughout the bear market.

DCA is about adopting no price-direction opinion in the condition of not-knowing. It's ultimately intellectually lazy.

But seeing the four-year cycle taking shape makes me second-think it.

Had I waited for BTC to pump before deploying my capital to low/mid-cap tokens (which will take some time to pump, allowing me to scoop at the bottoms), this feels like a much more efficient use of capital.

Moreover, it saves me time from paying valuable attention to macroeconomic development.

Then again it's not so clear-cut. Making trades involves muscle. The less you do it, the more frictional it gets. When it really comes the time to execute, you might fumble and fat-finger if the last trade you made was three years ago.

It could be that betting is about the act more than the outcome.