This is part of What Interest Me This Week.

For at least the last quarter or two I thought we've been in a market bull run, but after reading some new insights I'm not so sure anymore.

Every altcoin (not a term I like but short enough that it's useful) has historically trend according to Bitcoin. But that's no longer true. The hard data has been staring me in the face but I wasn't seeing it. Layer-1 coins (BTC, ETH et al), NFTs, DeFi, gaming coins has been going up and down in different directions.

Side note: I think the fat-protocol thesis is now largely disproved.

One rationalization is that Bitcoin is now an institutational asset, sharing the same inventory spaces with equities and bonds. That potentially means there will be no more 80% drawdowns, unlike in the past when prices were crashed by retail soft hands.

Problem is I have been counting on that for altcoin-buying opportunities, but they may not come (at least not as drastically). BTC won't be as volatile anymore, altcoins no longer trade to BTC's sentiment. Perhaps I've been playing an outdated mental model that is now too simple.

If this take is correct that means the crypto market is breaking up into pieces (hold together by distinct narratives). Each segment are games onto their own with less and less correlation.

Since my main playground is DeFi, I have to rethink the whole notion of whether I'm in a bull or a bear market and whether to deploy my capital at all.

If I've been wrong these past half a year the implication is there are now some serious buying opportunities.

In my portfolio SNX has been a major holding. The yield is somewhat healthy but token price has been depressed. I've been wondering if I should load up more of it, but it may not be wise risk-management.

I'm still not entirely convinced a future BTC dip will not pull everything else down with it. We can only find out when the time comes.