Shifting focus to infrastructural investing
For the past two years investing attention has been on DeFi. There are ups and downs but it arguably paid off. A lot of that time though were spent trying to study how financial engineerings are done in dozens of protocols. Not to mention chasing yield.
Lately I've been thinking about focus. It's a quality that's increasingly evading. So if I were to start gaining it back, investment makes a good starting point.
DeFi is game-changing. The problem is I have no edge in seeing the non-obvious in finance, derivatives, instruments etc. I barely understand how to trade options and couldn't conjure enough interest to try.
My edge though is in software. I understand how they get made and the people who make them.
So in the search for 100x return, I have a better shot at building conviction in infrastructural assets than in any given DeFi protocol. By infrastructure I mean smart contract chains (layer 1s and 2s), storages, oracles, utilities, etc.
Here's how I see it: blockchains (Ethereum, Avalance) are like cities; DeFi protocols (Maker, Curve, etc) are like corporations.
Now the leap of faith: while corporations can potentially be richer and span multiple cities, cities are more antifragile than corporations. Therefore while total value locked in any given chain can go up or down, the chain ecosystem itself will always be valuable regardless.
Layering another thesis on top (it's getting dangerously theoretical): the developer experience of a young blockchain ecosystem will be a leading indicator of its success. And this is what I'm qualified to examine.
All these doesn't sound farfetched. It has a ring of the Fat Protocol thesis. In fact I worry it's not contrarian enough to outperform simply holding ETH.
Regardless, it's good enough to get me started to streamline my info diet. It does mean though I have to do more costly deep dive research on my own rather than relying on third party accounts.