Billions of dollars are spent on experts who claim they can forecast what’s around the corner, in business, finance and economics. Most of them get it wrong. Now a groundbreaking study has unlocked the secret: it IS possible to predict the future – and a new breed of ‘superforecasters’ knows how to do it.
- Comparisons are important: use relevant comparisons as a starting point;
- Historical trends can help: look at history unless you have a strong reason to expect change;
- Average opinions: experts disagree, so find out what they think and pick a midpoint;
- Mathematical models: when model-based predictions are available, you should take them into account;
- Predictable biases exist and can be allowed for. Don’t let your hopes influence your forecasts, for example; don’t stubbornly cling to old forecasts in the face of news.