Billions of dollars are spent on experts who claim they can forecast what’s around the corner, in business, finance and economics. Most of them get it wrong. Now a groundbreaking study has unlocked the secret: it IS possible to predict the future – and a new breed of ‘superforecasters’ knows how to do it.

• Comparisons are important: use relevant comparisons as a starting point;
• Historical trends can help: look at history unless you have a strong reason to expect change;
• Average opinions: experts disagree, so find out what they think and pick a midpoint;
• Mathematical models: when model-based predictions are available, you should take them into account;
• Predictable biases exist and can be allowed for. Don’t let your hopes influence your forecasts, for example; don’t stubbornly cling to old forecasts in the face of news.

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