This week has a funny theme: decoupling.

Right-decision != right outcome

In a non-deterministic environment, the right decision (singular) is not obgligated to yield the right outcome.

Easy to intellectualize, hard to internalize. It's known for a long time, but hard to practice until by chance a poker session somehow compel you to not pay attention to your chip balance.

When you can't draw a straight line from one decision to an outcome, you can't help but bring statistics into the picture. When that fails, faith comes in.

The market has been decoupled from the real economy

Once you accept this premise, it's quite a flactrum to deal with how naive your investment theses has been.

If we accept that the market has been decoupled from real world economy, then it follows that everything they say drive market value (earnings, policies, fundamentals) are misdirections.

It's not clear what analogy suits this the most. Epsilon Theory for one kinda settled on The Matrix plus narrative.

Finding the right mental model itself is an alpha.

xfce, not GNOME

A tool-change is not easy thing to live through. Last week I switched from vanilla emacs to evil-mode, only half-comfortable with it now.

Something else compelled me to move away from GNOME to xfce in my Ubuntu primary machine.

I've dabbled with xfce in Manjaro Linux, it's beautifully done.

In Ubuntu it's almost embarassing. Yes it's twice as fast, but it looks like the most unpolished thing slapped together in haste.