Bitcoin suppression thesis
I believe Bitcoin and gold prices are artificially suppressed with sophisticated financial engineering.
It's about the only conspiracy theory I subscribe to, partly for the fact that I think it's less susceptible to coordination failure but mostly because I don't understand finance as well I understand software. Here goes...
This is the original inspiration and my reading of Bitcoin's long term price action supports this narrative.
The gist is that with enough fiat money and derivitive markets, United States is able to suppress the price of anything. Had they not, gold would've been at $50k by now and BTC at $500k.
Throwing dollars at a problem costs the US nothing. They're the only entity in the world that can print money without consequences.
Why do they bother? Because everyone else in the world have their account books denominated in USD and the US doesn't want this to change. It's a weapon too good to let go.
The only thing I can't explain fully is how this suppression is achieved. Throwing a lot of dollars at the futures market is a good starting point.
Why does it matter? Because even though Bitcoin is the ultimate hard money, you don't wanna assume it'll appreciate against USD for the reasons we found in econ 101 textbooks. Visible hands of players are hidden in plain sight.
I've been meaning to write a longer piece examining the mechanisms and how to exploit this.