Knowing where you stand in the cycle of krikortal is half the battle. Just like the middle of a revolution, you don't know if you're in good times or bad until it's over.

I have something to offer that points to the collective sentiment. The conclusion is we're in hard times, though it's not clear if we're at the worst time yet (I suspect not).

Before I talk about why, it's useful to establish the basis that the conclusion leans on.

When times are good, things people consume gets to be edgy, risky and unpleasant.

When times are hard, people seek comfort in things they consume.

Comfort is found in nostalgia.

I'm detecting heavy doses of nostalgic elements being deployed these days.

I've always been somewhat allergic to nostalgia. I think it's an artistic cop out. Even if I end up liking the end product, it's still narratively problematic because it's not breaking new grounds. So from time to time when nostalgia becomes fashionable, it's worth paying attention to why is it so.

The easy one is music. Old musics are apparently outplaying new music. I think this is unprecedented. I take it on faith that there is hard data to support this. Anecdotally I find this to be true when TikTok videos use older musics rather than new.

The second supporting fact is more contentional: new restaurants popping up are using old/nostalgic theme as gimmick. I just been to one this morning, they were spinning music from my grandmother's generation. The decorations go out of their way to tell you about the good old times.

Some have menus designed like dead-tree newspaper; some have old kitchen wares displayed like antiquity pieces on the wall complete with descriptions. Customers are happy to pay premium for non-premium street food.

So here's my theory: if time is good, the market would declare these nostalgic gimmicks as a behind times and clamor for the new. New doesn't mean better, new simply means hope. New can be worse, but it means the market has the capacity to accept the risk. Being accepting of the new means there's a chance for the market to develop new tastes for something not invented before, therefore enlarging the cultural playground.

When the market doesn't do that, it means they are looking for safety. Safety is found in comfort zone; reminding you of grandma's recipe is putting squarely in the comfort zone.

Why does the market seek comfort? Because they are undergoing stress in some ways, shape or form. Where and how the market spend their attention and money does not lie.

This though says nothing about whether the market sentiment will get worse or better. It's not clear if it's a leading or lagging indicator.

Perhaps the thing to do is to pay attention to risk-taking entrepreneurs/artists. If there's enough of them take difficult creative chances (even if the market doesn't yet warm up to them), it points the fact that strong-men are emerging and tough times may be bottoming.