Terra & the bear market

By now anyone who pays attention knows about the Terra Luna crash. Tens of thousands of people got hurt more than me, but I did not leave unscathed.

Watching LUNA crashing to zero was hard to stomach. I did not hold LUNA fortunately but I have a non-trivial amount of UST staked in Anchor. Today UST hovers around $0.20 to a dollar.

I was observing the crash live on Twitter, hoping to see information I didn't know about. I saw instead was fear of the mob.

At some point I decided this wasn't helpful at all. All I need to know was price action, and I could just look at the Binance price chart dropping to zero without commentaries.

Overall I'm sure my portfolio value tanked quite a bit, but I don't know by how much and I don't want to know. Not because I don't have the tools to know but because I built them to expose just what I need to know.

Last month I completed my current iteration of custom-made portfolio tracker. It tells me the breakdown of my holdings without telling me how much they are worth in dollar terms. More crucially it tells me the portfolio's risk profile.

Now that values have tanked, what I don't know don't get to hurt me. Drawdowns might be dramatic but I don't have to answer to clients like a fund manager.

I now pay attention to how UST swings more so than I did when they were thriving, hoping there's some means to recover the capital.

There are now many I-told-you-so anecdotes about the risks of Terra. It's not like I wasn't aware of them. But knowing what I knew then, I think I still would've made the same move. That the result is now negative doesn't mean the decision was wrong.

What I did right was sizing my bet in UST just enough for it to not hurt me too bad, while not buying LUNA was a great bullet-dodge.

I like it when a market rallies or crash in a line steeper than 45 degrees, even when it's a downturn. I prefer this to an ambigious price action where the mob can't decide which way they want to go.

My programming brain is wired to prefer unambiguitiy. Now that it's unambigiously a crash, I can now safely make bets without worrying if I'm paying too much.