Things learned since the last bull run
Here is an unexhaustive list of things I've learned since the last bull run.
It might not breach new height
Other than BTC and ETH, the chances of a coin exceeding its all-time high in price is far from certain.
This is a function of the narrative force in the animal spirit.
Fundamentals don't matter during bull run
Collective beliefs do.
Four-year cycle
For whatever reason, market runs in four-year cycles.
FDV matters
Fully-diluted valuation is the body snatcher that lurks behind market cap, creating an extra gravitational force that suppresses price.
The wider the gap between FDV and market cap, the more depressing the price.
Market cap + log chart
A zoomed out chart is better served by looking at the changes of market cap rather than the price. Sometimes they tell completely different stories (courtesy of FDV).
Adding on logarithmic mode, the price swings becomes more sensible.
As a result, there's less of an urge of trying to chase unreasonable new highs.
Beta plays are high risk
For context I had two wrong bets made during the bear run. One banks on the Cosmos narrative, the other an obscure perpetual DEX. Both were beta plays.
Why not the alphas? The thinking was these guys are going to pump much harder, better chance of 100x result.
But this is also true of the down slide in price, which was brutal.
On a risk-adjusted basis, even a reward at 10x valuation might not be worth it.
Airdrop farming is hard work
Airdrops are serious money. I distinctly remember when 1inch dropped theirs on Christmas Day.
Drops I got over the years were organic; I was a naive honest user.
But to farm for potential airdrops over dozens of protocols, most of which you have no real use for, that's mind numbing toil.
It might make sense for a time-rich/cash-poor person to do; but even then the farming work is so repetitive there is hardly intellectual benefit that come out of it.